Four years since ECTA (2022), the India-Australia trade relationship reflects both remarkable progress and evolving challenges. Bilateral merchandise trade has doubled to $24.1 billion in FY 2024-25, a testament to the agreement's early success. Yet, with nearly two-thirds of merchandise trade favouring Australia, both sides recognise the need for a more mutually balanced framework.

Investment Inversion

• Interestingly, investment presents a different picture. Indian FDI in Australia stands at $32 billion against Australia's cumulative $18 billion into India.
• This suggests that capital flows provide India a measure of reciprocity in an otherwise uneven trade equation.

Agriculture: The Difficult Terrain

• Agriculture remains the most nuanced area of negotiation.
• With an average farm size of 0.73 hectares against Australia's 1,400-plus, Indian agriculture is a livelihood for over half the population.
• Any framework must therefore respect this structural reality rather than treat the two systems as comparable.
• Protecting wheat, dairy and rice reflects genuine domestic imperatives on India's part.

Road to CECA

• The proposed Comprehensive Economic Cooperation Agreement – encompassing digital trade, investment protection and services – offers the right vehicle for a broader, more equitable bargain.

The Way Ahead